Monday, September 25, 2017

So You're Telling Me There's a Chance!

You ever wonder what the probability of us going undefeated in conference play, winning the B1GCG, going to the CFB Playoff and winning the championship is? Well, I hadn’t either until I was desperate for content to keep up this unprecedented streak of posting, so here we are. I assign a percent chance of victory to each game and then using MATHS, calculate (probably incorrectly – it’s been, like 40 years since my last math class) the chance the Gophers sweep the table and let us all die happy and fulfilled.

1.     Maryland: Will probably be facing their 3rd-string QB and we NEVER have problems against backup QBs. They looked like a solid team week one, but have since descended into a state of warm, fluid poo. WIN PROBABILITY: 80%

2.    @Purdon’t: What has been a guaranteed win for the last five years now looks a little concerning. Boiler Brohm seems to have revitalized their offense and their D looks substantially better than in years past. At the start of the season, this would have been an 85% win. Not today: WIN PROBABILITY: 55%

3.     Sparty: What do you do with a Sparty, when he stops being a Sparty? They mowed Bowling Green and won in meh fashion against WMU, then got piston-dicked against Notre Dame. They certainly look beatable, but the quality of talent is a notch about ours and I can’t believe Dantonio has methed his coaching acumen away. Still, it’s at home and I’m in an optimistic phase of life so: WIN PROBABILITY: 55%

Quick interjection: If I recall 4th grade correctly, you calculate the likelihood of independent events happening by multiplying the percents likelihood together. If my calculations are correct, we have a 24.2% chance of starting B1G play 3-0.

4.     Illinois: Squeaked out a win against Ball So Hard State University, beat Big Red and the Hilltoppers handily and then got effing pantsed against one of the directional Florida schools. Lovie Smith might very well be Tubby Smith, given the similarity in their results on the field. We go straight murderball on this one: WIN PROBABILITY: 95%

5.     @Iowa: Eek, here’s where things start to go a little sideways. Queen Victoria ruled the world the last time we beat Iowa at Kinnick. They played Penn State tough this past weekend, but have otherwise looked fairly pedestrian. We could win, but I think it’s a night game and we’ll all die horrible deaths. Get the booze ready: WIN PROBABILITY: 25%

6.   @Michigan: This is the very definition of a trap game. Coming off an emotional Iowa game with Nebraska and the chair waiting the following week? Hard to believe our guys won’t be looking ahead a week with glory on their minds. Also, Michigan will be a top 10 program, has sticky gobs more talent than we do and will kill our players and their families: WIN PROBABILITY: 5%

7.   Nebraska: For the newly minted and re-broken Chair that apparently isn’t a sanctioned trophy but will be shared by fans and embraced by the college football world for the purity of competition and memes it represents. Phew – very solid run-on sentence there. Anyway, Nebraska looks like the six-month old broccoli in the crisper in your refrigerator. A septic, fluid-like substance filled with vitamins and minerals. Also, your friend totally pissed in your crisper last weekend. He was that drunk and thought it was the toilet. I think we handle Nebraska pretty well and the Chair will live at TBD for the next year: WIN PROBAILITY: 60%

8.  @Nerds: This feels like a toss up to me. They definitely got their colons impacted against Duke, but they have some talent on the team with Thorson and Jackson. If this were at home, I’d make us slight favorites. Since it’s on the road, I should make the Nerds slight favorites; but fuck it, it’s my blog: WIN PROBABILITY: 50%

Quick interjection 2: Ok, so we have one game left against Wisconsin. They’ll have zero losses or one coming into this game. What are the chances we are undefeated and have this be a de-facto division championship game? 0.09% /sad trombone. BUT STILL A CHANCE.

9.   Wisconsin: This is totally the year we beat them. They play a creampuff schedule, Fleck will be frothing at the mouth and will be spitting acid on all of the players to get them ready to go. We’ll have saved all of our exotic schemes for this game, because Fleck knows if he wins it, there will be a Colossus of Rhodes-styled tribute to him where the Parking and Transportation offices used to be: WIN PROBABILITY: 20%

So the likelihood we win all of our conference games this…wait for it… 0.02% or about 5000:1. This makes me happy, because in a sport I know you all care about, soccer, specifically the EPL, Leicester was 5000:1 to win the Premiership in 2016 and did it. So I guess what I’m saying is, it can happen. And it will happen.

So what happens then? Well, we probably play OSU in the B1GCG for a shot at the CFB Playoff or WORST CASE SCENARIO the Rose Bowl.

10. OSU: They haven’t looked like the dominant teams of the past, particularly at home against Oklahoma, but I still think they turn us into a maroon and gold mist. Still, if we’re undefeated through this point, anything is possible. If nothing else, it’ll be a fun trip to Indy: WIN PROBABILITY: 10%

11.  Playoff 1: Let’s assume it’s Bama. We lose by 50, but, man it was a fun season. We secretly all wish we’d have gone to the Rose Bowl, though. WIN PROBABILITY: 0.1%

12. Playoff 2: LOL, yeah we just beat Bammer, we’re all high on coke and driving 150mph because the world will clearly be ending soon so fuck it. Let’s say it’s Clemson in the CFB Championship game. If we beat Bammer, we can beat anyone. I fear no man. I am the light of salvation. Gorilla: WIN PROBABILITY: 75%

So, the likelihood of us winning the CFB National Championship this year is a staggering 0.0000129319%. That puts the odds at about 773,281,574 to 1. Hell, why not take a flyer on that? The winnings on that buy enough coke to last three generations.

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